VoterSense
VoterSense
Candidate
Garry Chen
SF Board of Supervisors · District 9

Campaign Context

Configure your profile and candidate platform. The information you provide here is used by VoterSense to surface relevant insights.

Candidate
Campaign Profile
Campaign Platform & Key Issues
Guardrails enabled Evidence-aware Updated 2h ago
Core narrative
Proof points library
Specific facts beat generic promises.
Priority 1
Helping
Strategy
Action plan
Target
+6pt
Renters
Geo focus
Mission
Valencia
Risk / watchout
Avoid “blanket upzoning” phrasing. Always pair density with anti-displacement enforcement.
Priority 2
Needs clarity
Strategy
Action plan
Target
+8pt
Independents
Fix
3 bullets
measurable
Suggested upgrade
Add metrics: response-time dashboard, crisis team coverage, accountability reporting cadence.
Priority 3
Opportunity
Strategy
Action plan
Target
+4pt
Owners
Geo focus
Valencia
corridor
Best proof point
Show a concrete “permit fast-lane” SLA + one grant success story.
District Snapshot
SF D9 General: Nov 5, 2026 Updated 2h ago
Expected Turnout
24.3k
+2% vs 2024 baseline
Registration Mix
37/29/34
D / R / Ind (est.)
Top Neighborhoods
Mission • Bernal
+ Excelsior, Noe edge
Top Issues
Housing • Safety
then: small biz, transit
Precinct Priorities
Focus your field time where it moves votes
Precinct Type Persuasion Primary Concerns Action
P-14 (Bernal) Swing
High
 Safety staffing, street lighting
P-07 (Mission) At Risk
Medium
 Displacement, rent spikes
P-03 (Valencia) Base
Low
 Small business permits, foot traffic
Key Coalitions
Who you must win
Renters (high salience)
Target: +6pt
Hook: “tenant protections + smart density near transit”
Small business owners
Target: +4pt
Hook: “permitting fast lane + legacy business grants”
Independents (deciders)
Target: +8pt
Hook: “clear plan, measurable results, public dashboard”
VoterSense tip: When “rent” spikes, pair it with a specific proof point (case, policy, partner org).

Data Sources

Configure what public and private inputs VoterSense should ingest and analyze for your campaign

Ingestion Health
8 connected 3 recommended PII redaction ON Last sync: 12m
Coverage
84%
Precinct-level geo available
Freshness
2h
Median last sync
Evidence Policy
Safe
Quote controls enabled
Alerts
2
1 lagging, 1 schema drift
Total Volume (7d)
18.4k
All sources combined
Dropped / Dedupe
6.1%
Spam + duplicates filtered
Parse Confidence
93%
Avg across pipelines
Geo Match Rate
71%
Precinct/neighborhood tagged
Total Ingestion Volume
Last 14 days • includes dedupe + spam filtering
Spike detection ON Normalization: per-source Pipeline: streaming + batch
Volume Mix
7d
Helps you spot over-reliance (e.g., “too much social, not enough owned comms”).
Attention: “Public Comments” transcript parsing confidence dipped (new mic setup). Consider reprocessing last hearing.
Public Inputs
Geo: precinct / neighborhood Typical latency: minutes–hours Evidence: limited quoting
Social Media
Connected
Twitter/X, Facebook, TikTok, Instagram
High Priority Fresh: 12m Geo: neighborhood Evidence: summarized
2,431 mentions (7d) • Top spike: “rent relief” • Risk: brigading filter ON
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Media Coverage
Connected
Local news, blogs, RSS, newsletters
Medium Priority Fresh: 3h Geo: citywide Evidence: linkable
12 articles (7d) • Mentions: you 4 vs opponent 7 • Tone: mixed
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Public Comments
Connected
Council meetings, hearings, public testimony
Medium Priority Fresh: 5d Mode: transcript Evidence: paraphrase
4 hearings (30d) • Keyword clusters: “safety staffing”, “tenant displacement”
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
311 & City Service Requests
Recommended
311 tickets, service disruptions, response times
High Leverage Geo: block-level Evidence: linkable
Unlock: “what’s broken where” • Great for neighborhood-specific plans
Requests (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Polling (Public)
Recommended
Gallup, Pew, local papers
Low Priority Latency: weeks Evidence: chartable
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Voter Registration
Connected
County voter files (public releases / licensed file)
High Priority Fresh: 2h Geo: precinct Evidence: aggregated
Last sync: 2 hours ago • 24,981 voters • History: 4 elections
Updates (7d)
Origin Map
Community Forums
Connected
Nextdoor, Reddit, neighborhood Discords
Medium Priority Fresh: 1h Geo: neighborhood Evidence: summarized
89 active threads • Top theme: “parking & safety” • Toxicity filter ON
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Agendas & Legislation Tracker
Recommended
Upcoming council agenda items, votes, committee actions
Medium Priority Lead time: days Evidence: linkable
Detect “issues about to trend” before headlines hit
Items (30d)
Origin Map
No Data
TV/Radio Transcripts
Recommended
Local stations, interviews, talk radio segments
Nice-to-have Mode: transcript Evidence: paraphrase
Captures narrative shifts not visible in print media
Segments (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Private Inputs
PII: redact Evidence: controlled Access: role-based
SMS / Texting Replies
Recommended
Hustle, ThruText, Spoke, peer-to-peer texting
High Priority PII: heavy Evidence: aggregated
Unlocks top objections at scale • Best “what voters actually say” signal
Replies (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
CRM / Voter Engagement
Recommended
NGP VAN, Action Network, NationBuilder, Salesforce
High Priority Geo: voter contact history Evidence: restricted
Powers “who we’ve contacted” + outreach gaps + volunteer roster
Sync health
Origin Map
No Data
Inbound Emails
Connected
Campaign inbox, contact forms
High Priority Fresh: 14m PII: redact Evidence: controlled
42 pending • Top theme: rent relief • Auto-triage enabled
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Phone Banking / Dialer Logs
Recommended
Call dispositions, notes, (optional) recordings
High Priority Evidence: restricted Best for objection mining
Powers “why we’re losing persuadables” with real scripts and outcomes
Calls (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Canvassing Notes
Connected
Field reports, door knocking app
High Priority
156 doors knocked today
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Donation Records
Connected
ActBlue, Stripe, checks
High Priority
Last transaction: Today, 4:15 PM
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
Website Analytics
Recommended
GA4, Plausible, conversion events (donate/volunteer)
Medium Priority Evidence: chartable Drives message iteration
See what messaging converts: donate clicks, signup rate, time-on-page by issue
Conversions (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Paid Media Performance
Recommended
Meta/Instagram Ads, Google Ads, TikTok Ads
Medium Priority Evidence: chartable Measures persuasion at scale
Compare creatives by issue: CTR, CPC, conversions, fatigue alerts
Spend (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Event Attendance
Recommended
Sign-in sheets, RSVP lists
Medium Priority
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Volunteer Activity
Recommended
Shift logs, Slack activity
Medium Priority
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
No Data
Private Polling
Connected
Internal surveys
High Priority
Fieldwork completed Nov 2025
Volume (7d)
Origin Map
VoterSense uses freshness, coverage, and evidence policy to decide what can be quoted vs. summarized, and which signals should drive alerts.

Trending Insights

Breaking news, trending voter discussions, spikes on issues, and what to do next.

Updated 2m ago Scope: District 9
Total Mentions (24h)
3,184
+22% vs yesterday
Unique Voices
1,027
Across social, forums, email, field
Net Sentiment
+12
Housing down, small biz up
Geo Coverage
71%
Tagged to precinct/neighborhood
Happening Now
Live Feed
2 spikes 1 narrative risk Filters ON
@MissionLocalVoice
2m ago

"Why is the new housing proposal ignoring the shadow impact on the playground? We need answers @GarryChenSF"

450+ similar sentiments
High Intensity Mission
Incoming Email
14m ago

"Thank you for visiting our shop yesterday. The grant proposal you mentioned would really help us stay afloat..."

85 similar sentiments
Positive Valencia
Forum thread surging Community Forums
33m ago

Thread: “Is the new development pushing out long-time residents?” — comments up 3×. Top ask: rent relief + anti-displacement enforcement.

210 similar sentiments
Housing Mission Summarize only
Trending Topics
Evidence
Housing Costs & Displacement
Spiking in Mission/Valencia — renters + independents driving volume
+28% (7d) Mission, Bernal Social 62% · Forums 23% · Email 15%
High
@MissionLocalVoice2m ago
“Why is the new housing proposal ignoring the shadow impact on the playground? We need answers.”
Email (PII redacted)12m ago
“Rent just went up 18%. I don’t know how much longer I can stay near 24th St BART.”
Public Safety Clarity
Rising — voters want specifics (staffing, crisis teams, response-time targets)
+15% (7d) Bernal swing precincts Canvass 44% · Forums 31% · Social 25%
Med
Canvass note1h ago
“People like the direction, but ask: how many crisis teams? what’s the response time target?”
Forum thread3h ago
“Both candidates say ‘safety’ — what’s the actual plan and how will we measure it?”
Permitting Delays
Spiking in small business corridors — “time-to-yes” frustration
+19% (7d) Valencia, Mission Biz 46% · Social 34% · News 20%
High
@ShopOwnerSF2h ago
“Six months for a simple permit. How is anyone supposed to survive?”
Inbox (PII redacted)Today
“We’re losing money every week waiting for approvals.”
Transit Reliability
Rising in southern precincts — frequency + safety at stops
+9% (7d) Southern precincts Forums 50% · Social 30% · News 20%
Med
Forum6h ago
“Buses are unreliable again. We need frequency + safety upgrades.”
Local article1d ago
“Proposed service reductions raise concerns for late-shift workers.”
Small Business Survival
Steady positive — good for turnout + donor messaging
Stable (7d) Valencia corridor Email 40% · Social 35% · News 25%
Positive
Incoming Email14m ago
“The grant proposal you mentioned would really help us stay afloat.”
Thread45m ago
“If someone actually fixes permitting, they’ll win the corridor.”
Greenway / Environment (vote-split risk)
Stable but strategic — overlap risk with Park among environmental voters
Stable (7d) 15% overlap risk Forums 55% · Social 25% · Events 20%
Strategic
Forum2d ago
“Park is the only one talking about the Greenway seriously — what’s Chen’s stance?”
Event noteLast week
“People want a clear timeline + funding plan, not just support in principle.”
Trending Radar
7d signal score
Score blends: volume + growth + negative intensity + swing-precinct weight.
Where it’s happening
Details
Mission
Spike
Bernal Heights
Rising
Valencia corridor
Positive
Tip: Use Filters to focus on “swing precincts” or “independents”.
Spike Alerts
Auto-triggered
Housing “shadow impact” narrative
Mission • 3 sources • started ~2 hours ago
High
Top questions: playground shadow studies, community input, developer influence. Suggested: clarify review process + propose mitigation.
Safety staffing confusion
Bernal Heights • canvass + forums • started yesterday
Medium
Voters say stance feels “vague”. Suggested: publish a 3-bullet plan (prevention, response, accountability) + measurable dashboard.
Narrative Watch
Risk + rebuttals
Potential mischaracterization: “Chen supports blanket upzoning everywhere.”
Suggested rebuttal: “Targeted density near transit + anti-displacement enforcement + tenant protections.”
Top narrative clusters
“developer influence” “public safety staffing” “permit delays” “small biz grants”
VoterSense flags narratives that are (a) fast-growing, (b) concentrated in swing precincts, or (c) high-negative sentiment.
Recent Signals
Email: rent increase near 24th St BART
12 min ago
Mentions: 18% rent hike • fear of displacement • asks for rent relief + enforcement.
Housing Mission PII redacted
Thread: development impacts on small retailers
45 min ago
Business owner cites permit delays + foot-traffic disruption. Opportunity to promote “permit fast lane”.
Small Business Valencia Persuasion
Canvass: Precinct 14 — safety staffing questions
1 hour ago
Positive reception overall. Repeated question: “How many officers? What’s the crisis team plan?”
Public Safety Bernal Heights Needs clarity
Media: “development battle” framing
3 hours ago
Article frames the race as pro/anti-development. Suggest proactively publish “smart density + anti-displacement” explainer.
Narrative Housing District-wide

Long Term Analysis

Trends over time: attention, support, persuasion, coalition health, and forecast drivers.

Window: 90d District 9 Updated 2h ago
Platform Alignment
Weighted by swing precincts See Evidence
Affordable Housing
Impact: Strongly Helping
+85 Sentiment
Suggestion: Emphasize "Tenant Protections" + anti-displacement enforcement.
See Evidence
Public Safety
Impact: Mixed / Hurting
-15 Sentiment
Suggestion: Add specificity: response times, crisis teams, accountability metrics.
See Evidence
Small Business
Impact: Helping
+40 Sentiment
Suggestion: Highlight “permit fast lane” + a real grant success story.
See Evidence
Transit Reliability
Impact: Helping
+22 Sentiment
Suggestion: Commit to 2–3 measurable improvements (frequency, safety, cleanliness).
See Evidence
Permitting & City Services
Impact: Underexploited
+8 Sentiment
Suggestion: Tie to “results dashboard” + specific SLA targets.
See Evidence
Core Metrics
Model: poll + signals + field
Win Probability
58%
vs Rodriguez (32%)
Expected Turnout
24.3k
+2% vs 2024
Share of Voice
44%
7d • vs opponents combined
Persuasion Index
+6
Net in swing precincts
What moved win-prob this month: housing sentiment improved (+) but safety clarity slipped (-).
Support Trend (8 Weeks)
Likely voters Weighted by turnout
Tip: layer “issue salience” below to see which issues correlate with support shifts.
Attention Over Time
12 weeks deduped
Top Issue Drivers
Housing
82
Safety
64
Permitting
57
Small Biz
48
Drivers reflect “salience × growth × swing-precinct weight”.
Coalition Tracking
by neighborhood
Watch independents + renters: they move win probability the most.
Execution vs Goals
View logs
Doors knocked
13,200 / 18,000
Pacing: ahead by ~1 week
Volunteer shifts
980 / 1,400
Pacing: tight — recruit 12 more captains
Fundraising
$312k / $450k
Pacing: behind — donor reactivation recommended
Demographics
Evidence
Gender Split
Age Distribution
Suggestion: compare “independents” vs “base” segments to see where persuasion is moving.
Forecast Drivers
explains win-prob
Housing sentiment
Up +9 pts (30d)
+
Safety clarity
Down in Bernal swing precincts
-
Field contact rate
Ahead of opponent by ~18%
+
Fundraising pace
Below target this month
!
Risk: If “Safety clarity” stays negative for 2 more weeks, model projects win-prob down ~4–6 pts.

Competitor Analysis

Where you’re winning, where you’re vulnerable, and what to do next.

Updated 2h ago District 9
Current Support
Chen 58%
Rodriguez 32% • Park 10%
Momentum (14d)
+3.1
Net change in likely voters
Favorability
+18
Net favorable (you) vs +6 (Rod.)
Share of Voice
44%
You 44 • Rod 41 • Park 15
Head-to-Head Comparison
“Own” your strengths Hit their weakest contrast
Issue Garry Chen (You) Marcus Rodriguez Recommended Move
Housing Balanced Tenant protections + smart density near transit
Strength: renters + independents
 Deregulation Market-rate building first
Vulnerability: “out of touch on rents”
Public Safety Reform Community policing + crisis response teams
Fix: add measurable plan
 Hardline Budget increases + arrests
Risk: alienates moderates
Transit Pro-Bike Protected lanes + safer crossings
Keep: safety framing
 Pro-Car Restore parking + reduce bike lanes
Opening: “commuter harm”
Permitting / City Services Results Permit fast-lane + SLA dashboard
Strong with small biz
 Status quo “Streamline eventually”
Opening: vague/no milestones
Ethics / Influence Transparency Publish donors + meetings + recusal rules
Preempts attacks
 Mixed Developer-aligned perception
Risk: “influence” narrative
Auto-contrast tip: Lead with shared values → name the difference → show your measurable plan → cite one local proof point.
Issue Ownership Map
30d signals
You own: Housing stability, small biz permits Risk: Safety clarity
Coalition Overlap
who you’re losing
Risk: Park is capturing 15% of your potential environmental voters.
Strategy: adopt 1 strong, concrete Greenway position + keep housing stance stable to avoid whiplash.
Rodriguez Vulnerabilities
Evidence-backed
Out of touch on Rents
Opposition to rent caps polling poorly (~-12%) with independents.
High
Impact
Credibility
Transit Funding
Cut bus lines → opening with commuters in southern precincts.
Medium
Impact
Credibility
Developer influence narrative
Growing chatter: “who is he really for?” concentrated in Mission.
Medium
Impact
Credibility
Opponent Narrative Tracker
last 7 days
Rodriguez post
High engagement
“We need to get tough on crime and restore order—no more excuses.”
Safety Polarizing
Local coverage
Mixed tone
“Rodriguez pitches deregulation to accelerate housing supply.”
Housing Opportunity
Paid media
Low conversion
“Parking first” creative performs well with older voters, weak with independents.
Transit Targetable
Win move: don’t “argue ideology” — contrast on outcomes and measurable plans.

Donor Insights

Understand donors, improve retention, and optimize fundraising with data-driven recommendations.

Updated 1h ago PII protected
Raised (30d)
$92.4k
+14% vs prior 30d
Avg Gift
$47
Median: $25
Repeat Rate
26%
Goal: 32%
Pacing to Goal
69%
$312k / $450k
Donor Funnel
Last 60 days
Prospects
8,120
email/SMS/web
First-time
1,482
18.2% conv
Repeat
386
26.0% rate
Major ($500+)
42
in pipeline
Bottleneck: First-time → repeat is below goal. Prioritize thank-you + impact updates + recurring asks.
Revenue Mix
30d
Helps detect over-reliance (e.g., too much paid acquisition vs. retention).
Segments & Next Best Action
Segment What they respond to Next ask Recommended message angle Action
First-time donors Impact + gratitude $15 → $25 “Your gift funded 120 doors knocked — here’s what we learned.”
Repeat donors Momentum + urgency $50 → $75 “We’re 69% to goal — help us close the gap this week.”
Lapsed (90d) Personal updates $10 → $20 “A quick update on what changed — and why this race matters now.”
Major donor prospects Credibility + plan $250 → $1,000 “Here’s the path to victory — and what your support unlocks.”
Next-best actions are driven by engagement signals, donation history, and message performance (no protected-class targeting).
Message Performance
Email/SMS
Insight: “Housing stability + concrete impact” converts better than generic urgency this month.
A/B Tests
Subject line test: “We’re 69% to goal” vs “Help us close the gap”
Winner: “We’re 69% to goal” (+18% click)
SMS framing: “Match ends tonight” vs “Fund 500 doors”
Winner: “Fund 500 doors” (+11% conversion)
Landing page: impact-first vs candidate-first
Impact-first improved donate completion (+9%)
Major Donor Pipeline
Prospect Stage Suggested ask Angle Action
Prospect A (warm intro) Meeting $1,000 Housing stability + measurable enforcement plan
Prospect B (repeat donor) Follow-up $500 “Path to victory” + what funding unlocks this month
Prospect C (host potential) Host $2,500 Small biz roundtable + invitation framing
Watchout: Maintain compliance workflows for donor exports + reporting.

Ads Advisor

Plan, test, and optimize paid outreach using campaign signals and conversion data.

Updated 1h ago Targeting guardrails ON
Spend (7d)
$8.2k
Pacing: on track
Cost / Conversion
$6.40
Donate / signup
CTR
1.9%
Best: Housing impact
Fatigue Risk
Med
Frequency rising
Recommended Channel Mix
Next 7 days
Recommendation: Shift +10% budget to Meta for “housing stability” creative; reduce low-converting awareness spend.
What to Launch This Week
Persuasion: Safety clarity explainer
Goal: reduce “vague” perception in swing precincts
Persuasion Meta + YouTube
Turnout: Mission renters mobilization
Goal: stabilize support + raise turnout intent
Turnout Meta + SMS retarget
Acquisition: Donate landing page test
Goal: improve completion rate (+9% expected)
Experiment Google Search
Ads Advisor picks actions using: issue salience × segment persuadability × conversion history.
Creative Brief Generator
Brief: “Safety clarity” (Persuasion)
Target (aggregate)
Swing precincts + engaged community forums users (no protected-class targeting)
Hook
“Tough talk isn’t a plan. Here’s the measurable strategy.”
Key points (3 bullets)
  • Faster response: crisis teams + response-time dashboard
  • Prevention: lighting + safe routes + neighborhood partnerships
  • Accountability: transparent outcomes reporting
CTA
Volunteer / Learn more / Donate
Guardrail: Avoid “blanket upzoning” language; keep claims measurable and attributable.
Testing & Learnings
A/B: “Fund 500 doors” vs “Match ends tonight”
Winner: Fund 500 doors (+11% conversion)
SMS Turnout
Creative fatigue: “Generic urgency”
Frequency 5.2 → CTR down 27%
Fatigue Meta
Landing page drop-off
Donate completion: 41% → 36% (mobile)
Fix Web
Learnings update automatically from connected ad + analytics sources.
Audience Cohorts (Aggregate)
Behavioral + geo-based cohorts only
Cohort Best goal Best message Best channel Action
Swing precinct persuadables Persuasion Safety clarity + measurable plan Meta / YouTube
High-intent website visitors Conversion Impact proof + clear CTA Retarget
Small biz corridors Turnout Permit fast-lane + safety Meta
Tip: Pair persuasion ads with field outreach in the same neighborhoods for compounding lift.
Targeting Guardrails
Ads Advisor focuses on aggregate cohorts (geo + behavior + engagement) and avoids protected-class targeting.
Warning: Meta frequency exceeded 5.0 on one creative — rotate copy + refresh visual.

Next Steps Advisor

A prioritized action plan across messaging, field, fundraising, ads, press, and operations.

Updated 5m ago Evidence-aware
Top Priorities (Next 48 hours)
Impact Urgency Effort
Fix Safety Clarity
Swing precincts are asking “what’s the plan?”
High
Impact
9/10
Urgency
8/10
Effort
4/10
Deliverable: 3-bullet plan + one metric dashboard screenshot for web/social.
Mission Stabilization Turf
Housing displacement narrative accelerating
Med
Impact
8/10
Urgency
7/10
Effort
6/10
Deliverable: renter-focused script + 2 canvass shifts + community meeting invite.
Donor Reactivation Push
Fundraising pace slightly behind target
Planned
Impact
7/10
Urgency
6/10
Effort
3/10
Deliverable: 1 email + 1 SMS to lapsed donors with “impact proof” angle.
Action Queue
Publish safety 3-bullet plan
Workstream: Messaging • Due: Today • Owner: Comms
High
Voters describe current stance as “vague” in Bernal swing precincts. Add measurable components (response time, crisis team, accountability).
Add 2 Mission renter shifts
Workstream: Field • Due: Tomorrow • Owner: Field Director
Med
Housing displacement mentions +28% (14d). Combine door script + community forum reply + invite to tenant roundtable.
Rotate fatigued creative
Workstream: Ads • Due: 48h • Owner: Digital
Med
Frequency exceeded threshold; CTR down 27%. Swap “generic urgency” for “impact + proof point” creative.
Lapsed donor reactivation
Workstream: Fundraising • Due: This week • Owner: Finance
Planned
First-time → repeat conversion below goal. Send “impact update” + recurring ask to donors inactive 60–90 days.
Pre-bunk “blanket upzoning” narrative
Workstream: Press • Due: 72h • Owner: Comms
Med
Narrative risk detected in Mission: clarify “targeted density + anti-displacement + tenant protections”. Publish explainer + FAQ.
Reprocess public comments audio
Workstream: Data Ops • Due: This week • Owner: Ops
Low
Transcript parsing confidence dipped after new mic setup. Re-run last hearing for cleaner evidence extraction.
Risks & Blockers
Risk: If safety clarity remains negative for 2 weeks, model projects win-prob down 4–6 pts.
Blocker: Volunteer captain coverage is tight for Mission shifts (need +12 captains).
Opportunity: Small business “permit fast lane” messaging is trending positive—deploy 1 explainer + 1 roundtable.
All clear?
If no actions are triggered, this panel will show:
“All good — nothing urgent to do here.”
(In production, this is driven by rules: spikes, goal pacing, narrative risk, and data health.)

Deep Research

Ask questions and research your voter insights with AI.

PII redaction Evidence links Agentic mode
Why are we losing support in the Mission?
Answer
Mission 14 days Evidence-backed
Executive Summary
Confidence: High
Support decline in the Mission is primarily driven by housing displacement narratives, amplified by a recent development controversy. The most persuasive swing segment here is renters + independents.
Key Metrics
Trend
Mentions (14d)
+28%
Displacement keywords
Net Sentiment
-11
Mission only
Concentration
62%
Valencia corridor
Risk Level
High
Fast-growing narrative
Keyword velocity (last 14 days)
Driver Map
Causal chain
Trigger: “Shadow impact / playground” development thread resurged
Source: social + forums
↓
Narrative: “Developers over community / displacement”
Most repeated objection cluster
↓
Effect: Support softens among renters + independents in Mission
Concentrated: Valencia 24th–16th
Recommended Actions
48 hours
  1. Clarify stance: “smart density near transit + anti-displacement enforcement + tenant protections.”
  2. Publish one proof point: rent relief enrollment / enforcement wins / partner org support.
  3. Field route: prioritize Mission renters, focus on “stability plan” script.
Guardrail: avoid “blanket upzoning” phrasing; anchor to tenant protections + measurable enforcement.
Supporting Evidence
2 sources
Email from Valencia St resident
“Rent just went up 18% and I don't know how much longer I can stay...”
12m ago Mission PII redacted
Community forum thread
“This development is pushing people out—what protections are actually enforced?”
33m ago Valencia corridor Summarize-only
What should our campaign do this week to increase win probability?
Weekly Plan
Expected: +2–4 pts
Top lever
Safety clarity
Swing precincts
Top risk
Housing narrative
Mission/Valencia
  1. Publish 3-bullet safety plan (prevention, response, accountability) + one metric dashboard.
  2. Field: 2 turfs — P-14 swing persuasion + Mission renter stabilization outreach.
  3. Fundraising push — reactivation email + 2 events (small biz roundtable + tenant meeting).
Compare my position vs Rodriguez on public safety and give me a debate answer.
Competitor Comparison
Debate-ready
You: community policing + crisis teams + accountability metrics.
Rodriguez: arrests + budget increases; higher polarization risk among independents.
Suggested debate answer (30 sec):
“Everyone wants safer streets. The difference is results. I’m proposing a plan that prevents crime, responds faster to emergencies, and holds the system accountable — with a public dashboard for response times, crisis calls, and outcomes. Tough talk isn’t a strategy; measurable outcomes are.”
Which neighborhoods need more outreach, and why?
Outreach Priorities
Geo-ranked
Ranked by: (support softness) × (turnout risk) × (issue salience) × (evidence density).
Area Reason Risk Action
Mission Housing displacement narrative accelerating High
Bernal Heights Safety clarity concerns among persuadables Med
Southern precincts Transit reliability trending; opportunity issue Opp
Try asking:
Output includes: summary, metrics, drivers, recommended actions, and evidence (based on your evidence policy).